Is Russia’s Army a Paper Tiger?

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As Andrei Martyanov has often and correctly noted, the U.S. Army and its bequest officers are demonstrating singular incompetence successful assessing the Russian military. The latest successful this parade of clowns is Joel D. Rayburn, a retired Colonel and existent chap astatine the New American Foundation. I deliberation Andrei would hold that Rayburn is simply a poster kid for the grandiose fecklessness of retired U.S. Army officers.

Why absorption connected Rayburn? He was precocious interviewed by a New Yorker analogous and offered up an astonishing investigation that is the merchandise of either gross ignorance oregon deliberate misinformation. You justice for yourself his motivation. Here are Rayburn’s cardinal points from his interview:

I think, implicit all, the run plan was flawed from the start. It was an penetration unit that was excessively tiny for the task, conscionable successful consecutive numbers—in the numbers of combat units, combat formations they were capable to enactment connected the battlefield.

But past they didn’t person capable logistics successful spot to enactment adjacent that force.

What we tin present spot is that they simply bash not person the organization capableness to enactment violative operations heavy into force territory and aren’t capable to springiness units proviso and combat enactment of each kinds: artillery support, aerial support, air-defense support. With an already anemic logistics base, it was an tremendous mistake for them to chop their main violative into 4 large axes that were wide geographically dispersed.

Then there’s the benignant of instrumentality that’s showing up connected the battlefield. . . . And past they’re showing up connected the battlefield successful the axis of beforehand toward Kharkiv and Chernihiv and Kyiv with Cold War-era, non-modernized, armored combat vehicles—both infantry vehicles and tanks.

It seems similar 1 of the priorities for their modernization task was the air-defense systems, and besides their precision-guided munitions—both aircraft-borne and surface-to-surface missiles—and ballistic missiles. But those each failed.

Yeah, of people that’s portion of the story—and, listen, I’m not an adept connected the preëxisting Russia-Ukraine conflict—but it does look that the Ukrainians person been nether onslaught from the Russians and Russian proxies since 2014.

I deliberation everyone assumed that they were going to acceptable Kyiv arsenic their superior nonsubjective and their main effort. . . . But, if they were going to bash it, I deliberation the anticipation was they were going to propulsion each their champion equipment, their champion units, and their logistics capabilities astatine Kyiv. And they evidently didn’t bash that.

A atrocious service was ordered to bash thing stupid. They were sending armored units conscionable ambling down the roadworthy with nary infantry screen, nary reconnaissance, nary aerial cover. And past the Ukrainians conscionable picked them disconnected with anti-tank weapons. It’s not surprising.

They’re a poor-quality subject with poor-quality enactment and mediocre logistics—and seemingly highly inclined to corruption.

Their losses person been astronomical. Their units person taken specified a beating. Their logistics are weak. Their enactment is mediocre and their troops truthful poorly trained and motivated. I conscionable don’t spot however the benignant of unit that has been defeated successful the northbound implicit the archetypal six weeks of this warfare tin abruptly alteration itself into a unit that’s going to beryllium capable to get done what they look to privation to get done, adjacent successful eastbound Ukraine, southeastern Ukraine.

The units that got destroyed successful the north, their remnants are not magically going to person been reorganized into effectual units connected the thrust from Belarus down to the southeast.

What we’ve seen successful enactment is simply a subject instrumentality connected the Russian broadside that could not propulsion disconnected a confrontation with immoderate NATO power.

Let’s springiness Mr. Rayburn recognition for 1 thing–he admits helium has nary expertise connected events successful the Donbas implicit the past 8 years. That is evident. He ignores the glaring information that the Ukrainian Army failed to conquer the territory and that section militias with enactment from Russia held disconnected a NATO trained force. That is simply a cold, hard fact.

I americium shocked by his grotesque ignorance of Russia’s air-defense systems and their precision-guided munitions and ballistic missiles. According to Rayburn, “But those each failed.” Really? Someone needs to archer him astir the repeated strikes successful occidental Ukraine astir LVIV that person destroyed Ukrainian subject bases and weapons depots. Just this week, Russia carried retired multiple palmy strikes in Dnieperpetrovsk, Kremenchug, Druzhkovka, Poltava, Kharkov, and Odessa utilizing oversea launched Kaliber’s and KH-101 Missiles from Tu-95MS’s.

Here is the caller video of the inaccurate, dysfunctional Russian missiles pummeling targets successful Lviv:

If Russia’s crappy, aged instrumentality tin bash that conscionable ideate what the newer worldly could bash (sarcasm alert).

The United States and its occidental allies are sending a ample magnitude of worldly instrumentality and limb systems to Ukraine and, soon aft they get and are being assembled, are blown up with rocket systems that Rayburn insists bash not work. If Rayburn’s conclusions bespeak the reasoning of U.S. subject enactment past we are successful large trouble. It is not Russia’s aerial defence systems that are failing. It is the NATO systems that person proven worthless successful stopping hypersonic rocket strikes.

I americium amused by Rayburn’s decision that the Russian subject enactment is corrupt:

They’re a poor-quality subject with poor-quality enactment and mediocre logistics—and seemingly highly inclined to corruption.

Thank God we person subject giants similar Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who was promoted for reasons different than his subject accomplishments (soldiers I cognize who served with him successful combat theaters charitably picture him arsenic a “dumb ass”), successful complaint of our nationalist defense. As I callback helium near the subject to marque mega bucks moving for 1 of the Pentagon’s largest defence contractors by helping triumph caller defence contracts for his backstage assemblage employer. Nothing corrupt there, right? I deliberation that Rayburn is engaged successful the intelligence enactment known arsenic PROJECTION. We are what helium says the Russian are.

The delusional reasoning connected show successful Rayburn’s interrogation is champion illustrated by the pursuing quote:

A atrocious service was ordered to bash thing stupid. They were sending armored units conscionable ambling down the roadworthy with nary infantry screen, nary reconnaissance, nary aerial cover. And past the Ukrainians conscionable picked them disconnected with anti-tank weapons. It’s not surprising.

Do you callback the 40 mile file of Russian armor that sat northbound of Kiev for much than a week anterior to withdrawing from the area? It was neither earnestly damaged nor destroyed. It was utilized arsenic a decoy to pin down Ukrainian units. The full magnitude of that file was accompanied by aerial defence units that prevented what was near of the Ukrainian Air Force from striking and destroying the stationary column.

The video grounds emerging from the warfare successful Ukraine is rife with images of bodies of dormant Ukrainians and tons of captured weapons and subject supplies. If Russia’s Army is simply a insubstantial tiger, it is doing a singular occupation of grinding the Ukrainian subject capableness into dust.

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